Week Ahead: Brexit courtroom drama, US inflation and euro area PMIs

Welcome to your guide to the week ahead in the markets. This week, Brexit is inescapable and Euro data comes in.

UK Supreme Court ruling 

One thing is certain – the Brexit comedy/tragedy will continue this week following the drama of the Supreme Court. Boris Johnson will find out this week whether his decision to suspend Parliament was legal. Meanwhile rumours of the chances of a ‘deal’ between the UK and EU will no doubt do the rounds. 

Sterling will remain exposed to headline risk and be more volatile than peers, although until there is real clarity, GBP pairs may lack direction over the coming days. 

US PCE inflation 

The Fed is relaxed about the uplift in the core CPI readings, which jumped to 2.4% last time out. On Friday markets will be focused on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – core PCE. 

While announcing a quarter point cut to rates last week, FOMC members left their inflation expectations for this year and next unchanged. If the PCE gauge follows the CPI indicator, there may be some concern that inflation is rising faster than policymakers are forecasting. 

Eurozone data 

Following the ECB interest rate cut, markets are shifting to eco data to show whether there’s any sign of uplift in the Eurozone economy. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due Monday, while the German Ifo business climate report is released on Tuesday. 

RBNZ decision 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Orr has said the central bank is in wait and see mode as it assesses the impact of cuts this year. Markets don’t expect any change to the main cash rate on Wednesday, but recent GDP slowing does suggest the RBNZ will maintain its easing bias and accommodative stance. 

Corporate Diary

Keep these dates in your diary, as results come out for Manchester United, Nike and more.

Coming Up on XRay

It’s a busy week on XRay, make sure you don’t miss out on these live video sessions. Tune in live, or watch on catch-up when it suits you.

Key Economic Events

Lots of US and Euro data out this week, so expect to see some reaction in the currency markets.

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